NFL Week 4 Picks

YTD 10-7-2
+7 Units

San Diego @ Baltimore
San Diego -2.5
2 units @ 1.952
This is the Chargers first real test and i believe they will pass it with flying colors. Baltimore were poor against Clevland last week and their much vaunted D gave up two TD's. Questions have been raised about how rookie QB Phillip Rivers will handle this test against Ray Lewis and co but i believe he is up to it. He can only do what is asked of him and 71.7% completion rate and no turnovers so far is pretty good. Coming off a bye week star player LaDainian Tomlinson will be well rested and should see a lot of touches. Chargers win easy for me.

Minnesota @ Buffalo
Minnesota +1
1 unit @ 1.990
The Vikings were unlucky to lose last week against a very good Chicago team and can get back on track here against the decidely average Bills. The Vikes defence has been mean and should be able to stop leading rusher Willis McGahee.

New England @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati -6
1 unit @ 2.020
I've picked the Patriots wrong the last two weeks and will probably do so again here but i'm going with public opinion and think that the Bengals explosive offence will be able to cover the spread.

Seattle @ Chicago
Over 34.5
1 unit @ 1.901
Sometimes when you get a matchup of two good defenses it doesn't always result in a low scoring game and i think that will be the case here. The Seahawks used the 4 receiver spread a lot last week and should do so again, especially without Alexander. It will either result in Seattle touchdowns or interceptions, either way it makes for a high scoring game.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Over 48
1 unit @ 1.885
This game can be summed up in one word - Shootout.

All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting.

WGC American Express & Crouch Wonder Goal

Look no further than Tiger Woods this week as he returns to strokeplay. I recommend 1.5 units at 3.55. I'm staying away from the 3-balls tomorrow as it's difficult to guage how the Ryder Cup players will play after the big event.

I finally had a 3-1 day in soccer today on the Champions League with the scores in the matches i bet as follows:
Inter Milan 0 v 2 Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen 1 v 1 Barcelona
Levski Sofia 1 v 3 Chelsea
That all added up to a profit of 2.74 units.

My team; Liverpool beat Galatasaray 3-2 with a spectacular overhead bicycle kick from Peter Crouch. Who knew the big man had it in him?

Champions League Matchday 2

I went 2-2 in yesterday's games with a profit of +1.15 units thanks to my 2 unit bet on Arsenal winning and only losing half a unit on Celtic.

For today's games i really like the following:

Inter Milan V Bayern Munich
Bayern +0.5
2 units @ 1.96
Inter are not playing well and are looking frail at the back. In contrast Bayern sit top of the Bundesliga and comfortably beat Spartak Moscow 4-0 on Matchday 1.

Werder Bremen V Barcelona
Barcelona -0.5
2 units @ 2.01
Bremen have gone 5 matches without a win and hat streak will continue today against the Catalans. Barca did the double over Bremen last season and shouldn't have any trouble doing the same again.

Levski Sofia V Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and -1.5
2 units @ 1.85
Over 2.5 goals
1 unit @ 2.12
The Bulgarians lost 5-0 to Barcelona on Matchday 1 and are suffering an injury crisis ahead of today's game with Chelsea. Levski coach Stanimir Stoilov also promises "we will attack from the first whistle" which will more than suit the Premiership champions who will likely have influential captain John Terry back in the line up.

Weekend Round Up

We spanked the Yanks again in the Ryder Cup and i made a +7.72 unit profit. The final score was exactly the same as two years ago 18.5 to 9.5 and was fully deserved. All the boys played well and contributed in some way and it was especially emotional for Darren Clarke so soon after losing his wife Heather to cancer.



In NFL action i went 4-2-2 for +1.85 units with the highlight being New Orleans 23 - 3 win in thier emotional return to the Superdome thirteen months after hurricane Katrina. I really liked my pick here as the sportsbooks reported 90% of the action was on Atlanta which makes me smarter than 90% of the betting public!!! It was a great night for the people of New Orleans with U2 and Green Day performing before the kickoff and their team scoring a touckdown in less than two minutes off a blocked punt.

So with my golf and NFL betting going nicely let's see if i can get bak on track in soccer with some Champion League picks for today.

Real Madrid V Dynamo Kiev
Real Madrid -1.5
1 unit @ 1.79

Celtic V FC Kobenhaven
FC Kobenhavn +0.5 and +1
1 unit @ 1.96

Arsenal V FC Porto
Arsenal -1
2 units @1.93

Lille V AC Milan
AC Milan -0.5
1 unit @ 2.18

To update you on my fantasy teams i'm 3-0 and sailing in the 2+2 league but things are not looking so good in my more important work league where i'm 1-2 and my 1st round pick Shaun Alexander is out with a broken bone in his foot. Could this be another case of the Madden curse?

EA Sports feature a leading NFL player on the cover of their annual Madden game which this year is Shaun Alexander and they all seem to get injured one way or another.

In 2006 Donovan McNabb suffered a sports hernia and missed over half the season. In 2005 Ray Lewis broke his wrist, in 2004 Mike Vick fractured his right fibula the day after the game hit the shelves, in 2003 Marshall Faulk sustained an ankle injury and in 2002 Daunte Culpepper had a season ending knee injury. And now Alexander. Beware the Madden curse!

Ryder Cup

After having initially backed USA at 2.5 as i thought this was great value I now cannot see any way they can win and have changed my position by backing Europe at 1.93 on Betfair and i recommend everybody does the same.

My reasons for doing this are:

• I believe the European team has a lot more depth and the recent from of Casey, Karlsson and Stenson backs this up.
• The inclement weather expected will favour the Europeans. There will be rain and win and the Europeans are more used to playing in these conditions.
• Pairings. The USA really only have two strong pairings while the Europeans have a number and can rest players between fourballs and foursomes.

So, again just to confirm take Europe to win at 1.93 for 4 units.

The matches for the first morning's fourballs have just been announced and are as follows:

Monty/Harrington vs Woods/Furyk
Casey/Karlsson vs Cink/Henry
Olazabal/Garcia vs Toms/Wetterich
Clarke/Westwood vs Mickelson/DiMarco

I think Europe will definately take matches 2 and 3 and should win 1 out of 1 and 4 for a first morning lead of 3-1

NFL Week 3 Picks

YTD 6-5-0
Units Staked 15.5
Profit/Loss +5.15 units

Usually i bet 5 or 6 games but this week is one of those weeks where i like a lot of games so i have 8 selections for you this week.

Philadelphia @ San Fransico
Philly -6
1 unit @ 1.926
Although the 49ers look much improved on offence their defence still sucks and McNabb should have a field day.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Indy -7
1 unit @ 2.01
Indy at home in the regular season are near unbeatable and the Jags wont be able to put up enough points to cope with Manning's pace.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati +2
1 unit @ 1.971
The Bengals are firing on all cylinders while the Steelers are clearly struggling. I can't believe Cincinnati are getting points, take them and be happy.

Chicago @ Minnesota
Chicago -3
2 units @ 1.800
Chicago are arguably the best team in the NFL and with Grossman finally free from injuries i believe they can go to the superbowl. Giving 3 points on the road shouldn't be too hard a task.

Tennessee @ Miami
Tennessee +11
1 unit @ 1.926
In a battle of two poor teams 11 points is too much to turn down.

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Baltimore -6.5
1 unit @ 1.952
The Ravens D has allowed both the fewest points and fewest yards in their opening two games and with Reuben Droughns only 50/50 at best to play the Browns will have a lot of trouble scoring.

Denver @ New England
New England -6.5
1 unit @ 1.901
Denver and in particular Plummer have been dissapointing this season wheras the Patriots have been business as usual despite losing key personnel. It doesn't matter who Brady has to throw to he will make completions and move the team down the field. Maroney has been the perfect boost in the arm to the injury prone Dillon to supplement the running game and with Harrison and Bruschi back in the D i like the Pats to avenge their playoff defeat of last season.


Atlanta @ New Orleans
New Orleans +3.5
1 unit @ 2.03
This is going to be a good one on Monday night and i like Drew Brees and the boys to carry the saints to an emotional win on their return to the Superdome. I think the saints can be the real deal this season with Brees a signifigant upgrade at QB who had a very good rookie WR in Marques Colston to throw to. Atlanta are a running team and if Vick and Dunn can be contained then the Saints will win.

All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting.

Weekend Round Up & Game Photos

Andrea and I had a great weekend in Miami, the highlight of which was taking in our first NFL game on Sunday. Here are some of our favourite pictures from the game:

Although the football team is not too good the cheerleaders are definately top of the league!

Andrea adopts a Dolphin

Player introductions

The stars and stripes

Flyover by F-15's

Kickoff

Enjoying the game

Culpepper manages to avoid fumbling or getting sacked and hands off to Brown

Nice big screen

Dolphins line up just before the TD pass to Chambers in the fourth quarter

In betting news Monty did defeat Campbell albeit by only one hole. That was my last bet on the tournament which was eventually won by Paul Casey who defeated Shaun Micheel in the final.

I went 2-4 this week on NFL thanks to Philly pushing the self destruct button against the Giants when they were up 24-7 and the Jets giving the Pats a 24 point start before rallying to lose by 7 when i had them at +6.

NFL Week 2 Picks

YTD 4-1-0, +7.23 units

There's a lot of big point spreads in week 2 and personally i don't like betting these games. So this week i'm going to go with:

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Philly -3
1 unit @ 2.01

New Orleans @ Green Bay
Green Bay +2
1 unit @ 1.980

Arizona @ Seattle
Seattle -7
1 unit @ 1.962

New England @ NY Jets
Jets +6
1 unit @ 1.962

Washington @ Dallas
Dallas -6
1 unit @ 1.962

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
Pittsburgh -1.5
1 unit @ 1.971

All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting.

Good luck to everyone with their plays this week.

Matchplay Golf Quarter Finals

One match stands out for tomorrow's quarter finals and that is Colin Montgomerie against Michael Campbell. Monty played very well today and Campbell was poor. If they had been playing strokeplay today the scores would have been -9 and -1 respectively therefore Monty is the stand out bet to beat Michael Campbell tomorrow at 1.79 on Betfair for 2 units.

HSBC MatchPlay Golf

Today is the first round of the HSBC World Matchplay Golf Championship at Wentoworth, Surrey and it's a tournament i usually make money on.
Tiger is in the field for the first time in eight years and as i write this he's 4 down with only 6 to play against Shaun Micheel.
I just had one bet today and that was Angel Cabrera +2.5 holes against Ernie Els. As he's already won and i don't want appear to be a past poster here is a picture of my bet on Betfair:

Cabrera won 2 and 1 to knock out Els who joins Goosen, Scott, Furyk and most likely Woods as favourites beaten on day one. This is why the TV companies don't like matchplay events as star players can depart early and they lose ratings.
The lines for the second round matches should be up soon so i'll try to post any bets i make today then you can get on them as well.

I took a bath yesterday for -7 units on the Champions League with 4 goals being scored in the Man U /Celtic game before half time and Porto unable to score. Oh well, that's why they call it gambling. I'm leaving today's UEFA Cup games alone.

Dancing with the Stars and CL 9/13

Last night was the season premiere of Dancing with the Stars and apart from the entertainment value it should present some interesting betting opportunities throughout the season.

Last season Jerry Rice's legion of fans carried him to the final even though he was far from the best dancer and after watching last night's show I think there is money to be made on NFL all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith who should get the same fan support as Rice got last season and looks a better dancer than the wide receiver. He is currently available at 14/1 on Pinnacle and i recommend taking it for 1 unit.
Former Saved by the Bell star Mario Lopez showed why he is 3/1 favorite and again i think you should take this at Pinnacle for 2 units.

In today's Champions League games I recommend:

FC Porto V CSKA Moscow
FC Porto -0.5
1 unit @ 1.86 (Betfair)

Man Utd V Celtic
Under 2.5 and 3 goals
2 units @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
Under 3.5 goals
4 units @ 1.50 (Betfair)

Anglo-Scottish games are usually tough tackling low scoring affairs and I expect United to win this either 1-0 or 2-0 and am going under on the goals big time.

Weekend & Champions League Round Up

The NFL returned and I continued where I left off last season with a very good weekend:
Pittsburgh rallied against Miami to cover the spread and leave Mansion with a $5,000,000 pay out on their promotion.
Philly, Chicago and San Diego all won easily with Chicago and San Diego shutting out their opponents completely.
The only loss was Carolina who gave a very disappointing performance without all pro wide receiver Steve Smith and I won't be considering them again until he returns.
So that all added up to 4-1 for an 80% win rate and a profit of +7.23 units.
As well as the great football action the hot cheerleaders were back as evidenced by some of Philly's finest pictured below:


It was another disappointing week in the EPL for me with Liverpool defending like school boys and getting thumped by the bitter bluenoses who think all their christmases have come at once after a 3-0 win. Arsenal were poor again, Spurs deserved a draw but went down by a single goal with only brave Charlton landing a bet for me.
It added up to a 1-2-1 weekend for -1.03 units leaving a depressing YTD (year to date) record of 2-4-1 for -1.13 units which isn't bad unit wise but the win rate of only 29% is pretty bleak.

With the start of the NFL golf takes a back seat and I didn't do anything at the Canadian Open which Jim Furyk won. With Woods in such good form and now a Furyk win I really fancy USA for the upcoming Ryder Cup. I also think Lehman will be a good captain and the price of 2.3 represents tremendous value.

England actually won their last two cricket ODI's against Pakistan but after all the controversy I think the tourists had stopped trying. Luckily the price on Pakistan was too low and I wasn't involved.

And so to today's Champions League games. I guess 2-2 for a +0.24 unit profit is an improvement on my EPL form but i was looking at 3-1 with no goals in the Roma match with 20 minutes to go only to see the Italian outfit net four times in quick succession before the end of the game. C'est la vie.

Champions League 9/12

Just a quick one as i'm a bit busy at work but wanted to get these picks up before kick-off. I'll give you a full update from the weekend a bit later.

UEFA Champions League Picks 9/12

Chelsea V Werder Bremen
Chelsea -1 and -1.5
1 unit @ 2.150

Barcelona V Levski Sofia
Barcelona -2 and -2.5
1 unit @ 2.090

Roma V Shakhtar Donetsk
Under 2.5 goals
1 unit @ 1.813

Sporting Lisbon V Inter Milan
Over 2.5 goals
1 unit @ 1.885

All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting

Work Fantasy Draft

So on Wednesday night it was my work's live fantasy draft. It started at 8pm and finished just after midnight which is when the trading begun. I left at 1am as i was happy with my team but the trading continued untill 5am!
I named my team Scrappy's Sharks after my dog and here are the players that will hopefully bring home the dosh for me:

Starters
QB Donovan McNabb PHI
RB Shaun Alexander SEA
RB Kevin Jones DET
RB Ahman Green GB
WR Reggie Wayne IND
WR Hines Ward PIT
TE Jason Witten DAL
DST Steelers PIT
K Nate Kaeding SD

Reserves
QB Jake Plummer DEN
RB Mike Anderson BAL
RB LenDale White TEN
RB Verron Haynes PIT
WR Lee Evans BUF
WR Keenan McCardell SD
WR Joe Jurevicius CLE
TE Dallas Clark IND
DST Jaguars JAC

I really like my starting line-up but feel my reserves lack quality so i might have to do some trading or try to pick up some players off waivers. Anyway at $400 per team and $10 per trade the prize will definately be worth winning. I'll keep you posted on both my fantasy leagues as the season goes on.

EPL 9/9 & 9/10

After the international break the best soccer league in the world returns this weekend with some very good games. Here are my picks:

Everton V Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5
1 unit @ 2.170
The reds did the double over their Merseyside rivals last season and i expect their dominance to continue on Saturday.

Man Utd V Tottenham
Tottenham +1
1 unit @ 1.962
United's perfect start to the season will come to an end against Spurs. Rooney and Scholes are still suspended and Spurs should be good enough to earn a point at Old Trafford. Even if they're not i can't see them losing by more than a goal and we'll push the bet.

Arsenal V Middlesbrough
Arsenal -1.5
1 unit @ 1.962
Arsenal won this fixture 7-0 last season and can win comfortably again.

Chelsea V Charlton
Charlton +1.5 and +2
1 unit @ 1.971
Charlton are a tough team to beat and with Bent and Hasselbaink up front pose a very real threat. I can't see them losing by more than a goal.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Before i get to the picks let me give you a quick update:
Tiger won 5 in a row on Monday and i won my only bet on this event which was Glover's 3-ball on Friday for 3 units.
England lost both the 2nd and 3rd cricket ODI's against Pakistan and if you'd followed my golden rule from the 'It's raining Money' post you'd have been in the money.
In Euro 2008 qualifying England won 5-0 and 1-0 against Andorra and Macedonia respectively and now that's out of the way we can return to proper football with the resumption of the EPL on Saturday. (I'll post these picks on Friday)
And finally tonight is the live draft for my $400 work fantasy league.

And now to my NFL Week 1 Picks:


So after an agonising 7 month wait the new NFL season is finally upon us. Last season was highly profitable and i expect this season to follow in the same vein. Here are my picks for week 1.

Miami at Pittsburgh.
Everyone should have a $1,100 risk free bet on the Steelers for this one courtesy of Mansion.

Atlanta @ Carolina
Carolina -5
1 unit @ 1.943

Philadelphia @ Houston
Philly -5.5
2 units @ 1.962

Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago -3.5
2 units @ 1.990

San Diego @ Oakland
San Diego -3
1 unit @ 2.140

All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting.

Friday 3-Ball

Just one 3-ball bet today and that's Lucas Glover to beat David Duval and Carlos Franco at 1.95 on Betfair. They tee off at 12.30pm ET. Glover is in form and Duval and Franco aren't, in fact they're not even close and i expect Glover to win this by 3 or 4 shots. I recommend staking 3 units on this one.
It's a bit of a dissapointing weekend really with no EPL games because of international friendlies and the NFL not starting untill next week, i'm left with just the Deutsche Bank Championship golf. Not to worry, i'll take Andrea somewhere nice on Sunday as it will be the last Sunday i go out for 21 weeks!